Case Simulations
Nine decisions.
One discipline.
Pick a scenario. Adjust the facts. Watch the odds calibrate across four stages — from raw Intuition to a structured Advantage. The 51 line is marked on every bar.
Before you begin
Acubed (A³) and the 51 : 49 principle.
Acubed · A³
A decision-intelligence method built around three moves: Analysis (decompose the decision), Attribution (separate signal from coincidence), and Advantage (convert understanding into edge). Three A's, cubed — A³.
51 : 49
The decisions that matter rarely split 90 : 10. They split 51 : 49. The 51% is almost always the one variable everyone else discounted — the missed view on the film, the consent line nobody read aloud, the timing detail in the chart.
Find the 51™
Every simulation below runs the same loop: surface the facts, weight them honestly, and surface the single variable doing the most work. That variable — flagged in gold as The 51 — is what the model exists to find.
I · Pick a case
Causation
Standard of Care
Consent
Product / Technique
Diagnostic
Trial Strategy
Defense Strategy
Apportionment
Expert Defense
II · Causation
Trauma cause — or pre-existing degeneration?
Question. MVC plaintiff with prior MRI showing multilevel degenerative disc disease.
What the model estimates. Probability the trauma is the legal cause of the current operative pathology.
p₀ · Intuition
50%
p₁ · Analysis
54%
p₂ · Attribution
55%
p₃ · Advantage
56%
W · Weighted sum
0.058
Net direction of the facts. Positive helps the position; negative hurts it.
D · Decisiveness
0.058
How far from a coin-flip. Above 0.18 the model rewards confidence; below it the case is genuinely close.
The 51
Symptom onset proximity (hours/days)
Top mover. The variable doing the most work in this case — for or against.
Facts
Acute change on post-event imaging
Annular tear, edema, fracture, or new herniation absent before.
Symptom onset proximity (hours/days)
Closer in time = stronger causal chain.
Pre-event symptomatic baseline
Higher = patient was already symptomatic pre-event.
Mechanism magnitude (delta-V, fall height)
Plausible force to produce the injury.
Continuity of care record
Documented escalation from event to surgery.
Alternative intervening events
Subsequent falls, work injuries, other MVCs.
The math, in plain language
- Value (0–100) — how strong this fact is on its own.
- Weight (0–1) — how much this fact actually moves the decision.
- Direction (+/−) — does this fact help or hurt the position being tested?
- W = weighted average of (direction × deviation-from-50) across all facts.
- Stages compound: p₁ = 0.50 + 0.7·W, p₂ adds an attribution premium when D > 0.18, p₃ amplifies once the 51 is named.